Indice macroéconomique: Politique financière, développement technologique et tendances du marché de l'énergie au début de 2025

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Media for the central bank: the central bank has clearly released a signal to stabilize the exchange rate

2. In the first 11 months of 2024, nearly 2.3 trillion yuan of tax and fee reductions and tax refunds was supported by scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the integration and development of artificial intelligence and the Internet

4. Sinopec Fuel Oil Co., Ltd. completed the bonded LNG shore-based bunkering business for international voyage ships

5. Two Departments: transform or build a number of new energy storage power stations that are uniformly dispatched by dispatching agencies

 International News

1. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson's Remarks on Indonesia's Membership of BRICS

2. Bank of America: The average price of Brent will reach $65 in 2025, putting OPEC+ under pressure

3. The UK has replaced Germany as Europe's largest EV market

4. Fed Governor Cook: The Fed could be more cautious in cutting interest rates

5. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a 5-day winning streak

Domestic News

1. Media for the central bank: the central bank has clearly released a signal to stabilize the exchange rate

China's "Financial Times" article pointed out that compared with the expression of the three quarters’ regular meeting, the press release of the fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank conveyed a clearer and stronger signal of stabilizing the exchange rate, deleted the expression "enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate", and emphasized "strengthening market management, resolutely dealing with behaviors that disrupt market order, resolutely preventing the formation of unilateral consistent expectations and self-realization, and resolutely preventing the risk of exchange rate overshoot", resuming the previous "three resolute" expressions, expressing the firm determination of the People's Bank of China to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. This is also an important basis for judging the future orientation of exchange rate policies, which is conducive to stabilizing foreign exchange market expectations. The experience of several rounds of appreciation and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the past shows that the People's Bank of China has sufficient toolbox and rich experience in dealing with the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and has the ability to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

2. In the first 11 months of 2024, nearly 2.3 trillion yuan of tax and fee reductions and tax refunds was supported by scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing

According to the latest data released by the State Administration of Taxation, in the first 11 months of 2024, China's main policies to support the development of scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing industry reduced taxes and fees and witnessed tax refunds of 2,297.9 billion yuan. Among them, the policy of supporting the increase of investment in science and technology and the transfer of sci-tech achievements, tax and fee reductions and tax refunds of 803.6 billion yuan; policies to support breakthroughs in key technologies and the introduction and training of scientific and technological talents, tax and fee reductions of 108.7 billion yuan; policies to support the cultivation and development of high-tech enterprises and emerging industries educed taxes by 337.3 billion yuan; 80 billion yuan of tax reduction by policies to support equipment renewal and technological transformation; Policies to support the development of advanced manufacturing industry, tax reductions, fee reductions and tax refunds amounted to 968.3 billion yuan.

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the integration and development of artificial intelligence and the Internet

The 2025 (15th) China Internet Industry Annual Conference was held in Beijing. Du Guangda, Deputy Director of the Science and Technology Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that China's artificial intelligence industry is booming, and the empowerment of new industrialization has achieved remarkable results. At present, artificial intelligence is accelerating its iteration at a rapid pace, bringing new development opportunities to the Internet industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, accelerate the integrated development of artificial intelligence and the Internet, guide Internet enterprises to combine their own advantages, tap the potential of computing power, algorithms and data, integrate and expand the artificial intelligence industry, cultivate and develop new quality productive forces, and provide strong support for new industrialization.

4. Sinopec Fuel Oil Co., Ltd. completed the bonded LNG shore-based bunkering business for international voyage ships

According to Sinopec Fuel Oil Sales Co., Ltd., on January 2, the fuel oil company implemented the shore-based bunkering operation of bonded LNG fuel for the liquefied carbon dioxide carrier "Arctic Pathfinder", a newly built LNG dual-fuel main engine of Dalian Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. This bunkering is the first time in China to fill bonded LNG fuel for newly built international ships in the shipyard by means of tankers.

5. Two Departments: transform or build a number of new energy storage power stations that are uniformly dispatched by dispatching agencies

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the issuance of the "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Optimize the Regulation Capacity of the Power System (2025-2027)". The notice mentions that a number of new energy storage power stations will be transformed or built for unified distribute by dispatching agencies. Promote the transformation of qualified existing new energy storage facilities, and the power dispatching agency will dispatch and operate in a unified manner to improve the level of mobilization. On the basis of the overall arrangement of the scale of the construction of various regulatory resources, combined with the needs of system power supply guarantee and safe and stable operation, we will optimize the selection of suitable new energy storage technologies, and build a number of new energy storage power stations with advanced technology and effective functions with high quality.

International News

1. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson's Remarks on Indonesia's Membership of BRICS

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China welcomes and warmly congratulates Indonesia on becoming a full member of BRICS. As a large developing country and an important force in the "Global South", Indonesia highly recognizes the BRICS spirit and actively participates in BRICS+ cooperation. Indonesia's formal accession to the BRICS is in line with the common interests of the BRICS countries and the Global South, and it is believed that it will make a positive contribution to the development of the BRICS mechanism. BRICS countries are an important platform for promoting solidarity and cooperation in the "Global South" and an important force in promoting the reform of the global governance system, and have always been committed to upholding multilateralism, defending fairness and justice, and promoting common development. The BRICS family has ushered in a new member, in line with the historical trend of the collective rise of the "Global South". China is ready to work with Indonesia and other BRICS members to build a more comprehensive, close, pragmatic and inclusive partnership, promote the high-quality development of BRICS cooperation, and make greater BRICS contributions to building a community with a shared future for mankind.

2. Bank of America: The average price of Brent will reach $65 in 2025, putting OPEC+ under pressure

Bank of America expects the price of Brent crude oil to average $65 per barrel this year as new oil production from non-OPEC countries outpaces growth in global crude oil consumption. OPEC and its allies will struggle to boost oil prices and will have to maintain production cuts for longer than the group expected, the researchers said. "We highlight that the downside risks to oil prices outweigh the upside risks," Christopher Kuplent, head of energy research for Europe, said Monday. With OPEC+ production cuts longer than planned, "cracks are already starting to emerge when it comes to complying with these quotas." Kuplent said this year's supply growth will come from Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. U.S. shale oil production is expected to increase only slightly.

3. The UK has replaced Germany as Europe's largest EV market

Electric vehicle registrations in Germany fell by more than a quarter to 380,609 last year, while electric vehicle registrations in the UK surged 21% to 381,970, according to data released by the German Automotive Authority on Monday. In recent months, the market share of electric vehicles in the United Kingdom has increased as manufacturers try to meet the country's requirements for electric vehicle sales. The previous Conservative government in the UK required that 22% of all electric vehicle sales in the UK in 2024 should be sold, and this year's target was raised to 28%. Failure to comply could result in fines of up to £15,000 per vehicle. At the same time, EV sales in Germany have fallen sharply, and the removal of purchase incentives at the end of 2023 has reduced demand.

4. Fed Governor Cook: The Fed could be more cautious in cutting interest rates

Fed Governor Tim Cook said on Monday that policymakers could be more cautious about cutting interest rates further, citing a strong job market and recent volatile inflation data. "The resilience of the labor market has increased since last September, and inflation has been stickier than I thought at the time," Cook said. So I think we can cut rates more cautiously. "All along, I've envisioned a quicker move in the early stages of easing, and then a gradual easing as the policy rate approaches neutral," she said...... Over time, I still think a move to a more neutral stance on policy rates may be appropriate. Cook said the U.S. economy started the year "in good shape." Given the relatively low unemployment rate, wage growth is outpacing inflation on average, and the employment situation is stable. She does not see the labor market as a significant source of inflationary pressures. Commenting on the apparent cooling of price growth in recent years, she said, "There is still a long way to go to reach the 2% inflation target." ”

5. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a 5-day winning streak

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index ended a five-session winning streak on Monday, weighed down by weaker headsize and Supramax bulk freight indexes. The Baltic Dry Index fell 29 points, or 2.71%, to 1,043. The capesize freight index fell 85 points to 1,290. The average daily profit of capesize vessels fell by $711 to $10,696. The Panamax freight index rose 21 points to 1,061, a four-week high. The average daily profit of Panamax ships rose $190 to $9,548. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index fell 17 points to 867 points, falling for the seventh consecutive session.

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