Analyse du marché des PE en Chine (7 janvier)

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins from Sinopec and PetroChina totaled 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to yesterday.

PE spot market analysis: The domestic PE market continued its upward trend today. In northern China, prices for linear film grades, high-density, low-density, and low-density fiber all increased compared to yesterday, with price fluctuations ranging from 50 to 350 yuan/ton.

In eastern China, only the price of low-density film grades remained stable, while prices for linear fiber, high-density, and low-density grades increased to varying degrees, with price increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton. In southern China, prices for linear film grades, high-density, low-density, and low-density fiber also showed an upward trend, with price adjustments ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton.

Driven by positive performance in the futures market, trading activity in the PE market increased, and sentiment was generally optimistic. Currently, market prices show a differentiated adjustment trend, with most producers choosing to maintain stable factory prices, while only a few companies raised their prices, with adjustments ranging from 20 to 400 yuan/ton.

Traders closely followed market trends, actively pushing prices upward. However, actual transactions have not yet fully materialized, with negotiations remaining the main method, gradually pushing market prices higher. Speculative sentiment intensified, with enthusiasm for pursuing higher prices significantly boosting the market.

However, the growth in downstream factory orders remained weak, and end-users mainly replenished their stocks to meet immediate needs, failing to provide effective fundamental support for the market's upward movement.

PE spot market forecast: In the futures market, the L2605 contract experienced a volatile upward trend during overnight trading. Prices dropped rapidly during the morning session but rebounded strongly in the afternoon, maintaining a high level of fluctuation.

Macroeconomic factors provided some support to the polyethylene market sentiment, but the weak demand situation remained unchanged, resulting in a market characterized by a divergence of "warm sentiment but insufficient fundamental support." Traders followed market trends and shipped goods accordingly. Low-priced resources sold relatively well as they matched downstream purchasing expectations.

However, downstream factories generally resisted high-priced resources, leading to overall weak replenishment. Plastic packaging companies were affected by the off-season in end-consumer demand, resulting in a significant reduction in orders and maintaining only small-scale, just-needed production. Automotive plastic parts manufacturers experienced slow order follow-up due to lower-than-expected vehicle production and sales, maintaining low operating rates.

Everyday consumer plastic product companies were hindered by the end of the retail replenishment cycle, significantly slowing their raw material procurement. On the supply side, a PE unit at Shanghai Petrochemical restarted today. Although market inventory decreased compared to yesterday, considering the overall industry operating rate and capacity base, potential supply-side pressure has not been substantially alleviated.

In summary, the central contradiction in the current market lies in the mismatch between supply and demand. Short-term impulses from macroeconomic sentiment are insufficient to offset the reality of weak end-consumer demand. The polyethylene market is expected to exhibit a range-bound trading pattern in the short term.

Main PE market prices:

PE futures analysis: On January 7, L2605 opened at 6595, reached a high of 6666, a low of 6581, held 505,678 contracts, and closed at 6625, compared to the previous settlement of 6522, a gain of 103. The daily trading volume was 566,498 lots, with circulating funds totaling 2.351 billion yuan and a net inflow of 12.14 million yuan.

Domestic PE indices: According to TuDuoDuo data, on January 7, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7114, up by 7; the LDPE film spot index was 8556, up by 150; and the LLDPE spot index was 6573, up by 63.

Shenhua auction statistics: Today's linear polyethylene auction volume was 800 tons, with a transaction volume of 650 tons. Today's high-density polyethylene auction volume was 0 tons, with a transaction volume of 0 tons. Today's low-density polyethylene auction volume was 0 tons, with a transaction volume of 0 tons.

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